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British Rresearch Institute Warns: Britain's Trade War with China will Suffer Its Own Consequences

Source:Iris Liang Time:2020-7-18 15:00:53

Reference News Network reported on July 15 that British media said that a major forecasting agency has issued a warning that if the increasingly tense diplomatic relationship triggers a trade war with China, it will hurt economic growth, push up inflation and cause interest rates to rise. . In the era of globalization, the economic development of various countries can no longer be isolated islands. Today, when the epidemic is spreading, most countries have stagnated and the global economy is in recession. No country can do its own thing. Only win-win cooperation is the only way out. SEKO Machinery will continue to devote itself to providing high-quality intelligent stainless steel industrial pipe production line equipment for global industrial stainless steel pipe manufacturers to make production more simple and efficient.

According to a report on the British "Times" website on July 14, the National Institute of Economics and Social Research said that the disputes caused by the deterioration of the relationship-including the debate about whether Huawei should be excluded from the British Telecom contract-may be It affects households in the form of price increases and slower growth.

The Institute said in a report on the relationship between Britain and China: "Restrictions on trade between Britain and China-a possible result of the Huawei dispute-will reduce gross domestic product (GDP) and increase inflation. Faced with upward pressure, which led to rising interest rates."

It is reported that in recent weeks, as the British government reconsidered its position on Huawei, relations between the two countries have become tense. Britain also promised to accept Hong Kong immigrants to protest the Hong Kong National Security Law passed by China.

The report stated that the economic value of maintaining friendly relations is considerable. The report said that if the restrictions caused by political factors cause a reduction in imported Chinese products and British exports to China, it will reduce the GDP growth rate by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per year.

Inflation rate will rise by about 0.3% in the first year, and this value will be higher in a longer period of time, and interest rates will increase by 0.1%.

The institute stated that "from an economic point of view," the total prohibition of Huawei from participating in the UK's 5G infrastructure "is expected to lead to higher prices and delays in laying work."

According to the report, once there is a "China shock"-it may be the result of the United States fighting for allies to push China out of the global market, leading to a continuous decline in China's domestic demand, then the British economic growth will "(decrease) by approximately 1% of GDP may last for several years."

In 2015, the then Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said that the two countries have entered a new "golden age". This report shows the degree of integration between Britain and China during this golden decade. The institute said that China's rise as a manufacturing power has repositioned the UK to "shift from traditional industries to industries that can compete internationally, such as pharmaceuticals and finance."

The report pointed out that China is the third largest market for Britain’s exports of goods and services, and one of the fastest-growing markets. The total trade volume has increased from 6 billion pounds in 1999 (1 pound is about 8.79 yuan-this website note). 80 billion pounds last year.

The report also said that education is also a key link. Since 2006, the number of Chinese students studying at British universities has more than tripled to approximately 115,000-more than students from the European Union. Their annual tuition contribution is approximately £1.7 billion. In 13 higher education institutions, more than 10% of students are Chinese; in private schools, 16,000 students come from mainland China and Hong Kong, accounting for 28% of the total number of non-UK students. Last year, Chinese tourists to the UK spent 1.7 billion pounds.

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