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U.S. Vacancies Are Increasing Slowly, Jobs Are Still in Short Supply

Source:Iris Liang Time:2020-9-10 17:11:45

On September 9, local time, the Job Vacancies and Labor Flow Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that after the seasonal adjustment in July, job vacancies rose to 6.618 million, an increase of 617,000 monthly, higher than market expectations, reflecting the labor market Is recovering. However, because the number of unemployed persons in the United States is still high, and on average, more than one unemployed person competes for each vacant position, and the phenomenon of "more monks and porridge" cannot change in the short term.

Vacancies continue to increase

   The job vacancies and labor mobility survey released by the US Department of Labor on September 9 showed that after the seasonal adjustment in July, job vacancies rose to 6.618 million, an increase of 617,000 from the 6.01 million revised in June, which has increased for three consecutive months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics under the U.S. Department of Labor said that the increase in job vacancies that measure labor demand indicates that economic activities restricted by the new crown epidemic are recovering.

  The data also showed that the number of recruits in July decreased from 7 million in June to 5.8 million, and the total number of turnovers remained unchanged at 5 million. According to the Associated Press's analysis, American employers published more job advertisements in July, but the number of employees hired was declining, sending conflicting signals about the recovery of the job market.

   "In general, this report confirms that the labor market is in a sustained but slow recovery process," wealth management company Contingent Macro Advisors said in a research report.

   The job vacancy report reflects the job vacancies in the US business, industry, and government. It is an indicator of labor shortage or surplus at the national level. In the questionnaire, the employer described the company’s employment situation, the number of vacant positions, recruitment and dismissal. The survey sample included tens of thousands of companies across the United States, representing most areas of the U.S. economy.

  The number of unemployed far exceeds the number of job vacancies

   Economists use job vacancy survey reports to analyze the nation’s labor market and describe the business cycle. The growth of vacancy indicators can generally be used to describe the improvement of economic conditions, but in the case of a sharp rise in the unemployment population in the United States caused by the new crown epidemic, analysts have begun to analyze this data from the perspective of the labor market.

   The Wall Street Journal analyzed that the latest data from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of unemployed persons in July was 16.3 million, which greatly exceeded the number of job vacancies in July. This is the most important change that the epidemic has brought to the US labor market. From the beginning of 2018 until February this year, the number of job vacancies has been higher than the number of job seekers without jobs. But starting in March of this year, the situation has taken a turn for the worse: On average, more than one job applicant competes for each vacant position.

   The economic research director of the job site Indeed, Nick Bunker, said that although the prospects of job seekers may not be as severe as some statistics show, if the economic pain continues, the situation may worsen. “As of July, there are 2.5 unemployed people competing for each vacant position. Since the beginning of 2014, there have not been so many unemployed people competing for a new job,” he wrote.

   However, some analysts believe that many unemployed people are waiting to return to their original positions. Excluding these people, the ratio of job seekers to vacant positions is about 1.4, which is not too scary. If these temporarily unemployed people can return to work, the labor market may not be as bad as it seems.

   Employment recovery faces many obstacles

   A report issued by the US Department of Labor on September 9 also showed that the number of voluntary resignations in July increased by 344,000 to 2.9 million, up from 2.6 million in June. The unexpected increase in this data has caused a lot of worry, because when the job market is weak, people are usually reluctant to resign. However, what is special about this summer is that many people do not want to go to work to avoid contracting the new crown virus, and some people stay at home to take care of children who cannot return to school.

   The weak recovery caused by the rebound of the epidemic has also made the supply of vacant jobs even more in short supply. Nick Bunker, director of economic research at the job site Indeed, points out: "A more lasting disruption to the economy will lead to more unemployed people competing for fewer vacancies. As a result, the labor market is more fragmented for job seekers. It will be more difficult to find a new job quickly."

   Alice Gould, a senior economist at the Institute for Economic Policy Research, a US think tank, said that the report on job vacancies and labor mobility released on September 9 showed that the rate of recruitment by US companies has slowed sharply. "Given the huge employment gap, this is particularly worrying," Gould said. "If Congress does not act to stimulate the economy, we will face a slow and painful recovery."

   This job vacancy report was released after the non-agricultural employment report last week, and the two are often analyzed and compared. The number of new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector in August was 1.37 million, which was lower than market expectations and not as good as the revised level in July. Of the 22.2 million jobs lost due to the epidemic, only about 10.6 million jobs have been restored so far, of which 4.8 million jobs were added in June, the number dropped to 1.73 million in July, and it has fallen to 137 million in August. Ten thousand, showing that although the US economy is gradually rebounding, the pace of employment recovery is still slowing down.

With the resumption of work in some industries in the United States, service industries such as dental clinics and clothing stores have launched a new round of recruitment this summer, but commercial venues with high traffic such as bars and stadiums are still closed, which hinders to a certain extent The pace of US employment recovery.

   Another issue closely related to the labor market is the local fiscal crisis in the United States. Faced with a huge budget gap, local governments have started layoffs. For example, New York City is expected to lay off 22,000 municipal workers.

   Due to reduced taxes, New York City’s fiscal deficit in the next two years may be as high as $8.7 billion. Therefore, the mayor decided to balance the fiscal deficit through layoffs. According to the New York City Municipal Bulletin, the largest part of local government financial expenditures comes from human costs, including front-line medical workers, firefighters, health care workers and cleaners, teachers, etc. Although layoffs can indeed alleviate the financial crisis, it is bound to exacerbate the unemployment problem.

   In addition, although the unemployment rate in the United States has been declining recently, nearly half of the unemployed during the epidemic did not return to work, and the recovery on the demand side has been relatively slow. Due to the delay of Congress on reaching an agreement on a new round of economic stimulus measures, and the delay of the financial assistance urgently needed by enterprises, these factors may pose a major challenge to employment recovery. Although the beginning of 2020 is extremely difficult, SEKO Machinery still maintains an upward momentum, especially the inline heat treatment and solution annealing equipment. This fully shows that as long as the product quality is excellent and product innovation is maintained, the market will still choose such a trustworthy company.

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Iris Liang
SEKO Machinery & Technology Co., Ltd
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