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The Worst Situation Happened. Another Black Swan Came in 2019

Source:Iris Liang Time:2019-3-13 10:57:29

 (1)

The worst situation has happened.

On Sunday, March 10, a Boeing 737 max-8 aircraft of Ethiopian Airlines crashed shortly after take-off, killing 157 people.

On the plane, there are also eight Chinese passengers: four central enterprise employees, two UN staff members, and two others for private travel. SEKO Machinery expressed deep condolences. There are never small things about safety issues. Our high-end precision industrial welded pipe production lines are subject to strict commissioning before delivery, and a conspicuous safety mark is placed on specific areas of the fuselage to ensure the safety and standardization of factory workers during operation.
But there is no compromise. In 2019, another black swan came, not only for the stock market, but also for the people, and for the priceless life.

Because just five months ago, the same Boeing 737 max-8 was the most in Indonesia, and all 289 people were killed.

The same Boeing new aircraft, the same take-off devil moment, the same similar reasons, then, what happened?

There are indications that point to a new feature of Boeing's model, the automatic anti-stall system.

It should be said that this is a good thing. Once the nose of the aircraft is raised to a dangerous altitude, the system automatically intervenes to take over the aircraft control, allowing the aircraft to fly low and avoid extreme conditions.

But this is only the angel's face of the devil, but the other face is very embarrassing: according to some experts, in some cases, the system can accidentally reduce the nose, and the magnitude is too large, so that the crew can not re- Raise the nose and the final result is likely to be a dive or crash.

Two months ago, the Indonesian air crash, the Indonesian official preliminary survey according to the black box shows: in the 11-minute flight, the aircraft's nose automatically sagged more than 20 times, the pilot has been fighting the problematic aircraft, the machine The head is pulled high.

The final result of this "human-machine war" is that the plane crashed into the sea and there was no survival.

You can imagine the desperation of the pilot trying hard but not being able to return to the sky.

The situation in the Ethiopian accident seems to be the same. According to the information disclosed by Ethiopia, the weather was good. After the plane took off, the captain said that it was difficult to maneuver the plane and requested to return immediately and get approval from the ground air traffic control.

But everything seems to be too late. After six minutes of take-off, the plane crashed on the ground and more than 150 lives were wiped out.

The devil was released.

(2)

After the Indonesian air crash, Boeing issued warnings to airlines around the world.

But this warning has made many people angry. According to media reports, whether it is the airline's management or pilots, they don't even know that such a system is installed on the plane.

The Washington Post reported in the November 13 report last year that Mike Michelis, chairman of the American Pilots’ Safety Committee, said: “It’s stupid to install a system on the plane but not to tell the pilot who is operating the aircraft, especially It also involves flight control. Why have they not received training in this area before?"
But the dead sheep failed to make up, and new accidents still happened.

Therefore, there was an emergency announcement by the Civil Aviation Administration of China on the morning of March 11th: all 737 max-8 aircraft were grounded.

The announcement is also welcome, pointing to the possible reasons:

On March 10th, a Boeing 737-8 aircraft crashed in Ethiopian Airlines. This was the second air crash in the Boeing 737-8 aircraft following the October 29th Indonesian Lion Air accident.

In view of the fact that the two air crashes are newly delivered Boeing 737-8 aircraft, and they all occur in the take-off phase, they have certain similarities. In line with the management principle of zero tolerance for safety hazards and strict control of safety risks, in order to ensure the flight of civil aviation in China Security, at 9:00 on March 11, the Civil Aviation Administration issued a notice requesting domestic transportation airlines to suspend the commercial operation of the Boeing 737-8 aircraft before 18:00 on March 11, 2019.

The Civil Aviation Authority will contact the US Federal Aviation Administration and Boeing Company to notify the shipping airlines to resume the commercial operation of the Boeing 737-8 aircraft after confirming the relevant measures to effectively ensure flight safety.

According to statistics, there are currently 96 aircraft operating in China, involving multiple airlines.

China has also become the first country in the world to ban the flight.

This is not an easy decision, and certainly has some kind of pressure.

For this decision, Li Jian, deputy director of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, revealed on the same day that before making the decision, the Civil Aviation Administration of China had communicated with Boeing and the US Federal Aviation Administration. "Because the US has been difficult to make up its mind, the Civil Aviation Authority has to take the lead. The decision to stop flying the model."

According to his judgment, the problem of the Boeing 737-8 is currently difficult to solve.

"The problems with the Boeing 737-8 model can only be solved in the automatic driving state. The manual driving state is too late, and then the automatic driving can not be connected. There are some technical methods, but they cannot be solved."

Please note that it is difficult for the United States to make up its mind.

Why?

First of all, it is a huge economic benefit.

In terms of economic efficiency, the 737 MAX is Boeing's trump card, and its profit contribution rate accounts for one-third of Boeing's profit. With the acceleration of production speed, Boeing is expected to bring 30 billion US dollars in revenue a year.

More consideration by Americans may be in the reputation. If the aircraft is grounded, it will undoubtedly be a major blow to Boeing's future reputation. It is even worse news for US manufacturing and US exports.

  this is the truth. If it is a plane problem in other countries, the United States will certainly not be "hard to make up its mind".

Under this circumstance, according to the Chinese side, aviation safety is the first, China has no other way, and can only take the lead in making the decision to stop the aircraft.

After China, Ethiopia and Indonesia also made the decision to suspend the aircraft.


  (three)

This is the first black swan in the spring of 2019.

For Boeing, the final findings are not yet known, but the tragedy of the two new aircrafts indicates that the nightmare should have just begun.

However, the stock price only fell by 5% that day. It can also be seen that the Americans are somewhat indifferent to the external tragedy, or that the serious situation is still underestimated.

This is not the first black swan in 2019. Do you remember the plunge in the second trading day of 2019?

The day:

The Dow Jones index fell 2.83%.

The Standard & Poor's index fell by 2.48%.

The Nasdaq index fell 3.04%.

On the last trading day before Christmas, Americans have witnessed the worst Christmas market ever.

The first black swan in 2019 was the apple that was once in the sky. What caused the plunge was Apple’s poor revenue expectations.

On the same day, Apple released its revenue forecast for the first fiscal quarter of FY 2019, which was lowered to US$84 billion, much lower than the previous US$89 billion to US$93 billion. Apple CEO Cook said that the reason for the downgrade is because the iPhone is not selling well in Greater China, and the frequency of consumer updates in other countries has slowed down.

This is the first time Apple has lowered its expectations in 12 years. Apple's share price also fell 9.96%, and Apple's worst tragic decline in six years.

As a symbol of American innovation, Apple's share price has continued to soar in the past few years, and the market value once exceeded the $1 trillion mark.

But Apple's good days may also end. After all, with the fierce competition in the mobile phone market, Apple's innovation is becoming more and more weak, and signs of downhill are obvious.

Now, it is Boeing again.

This is not reminiscent of Murphy's law.

Captain Murphy of the US Air Force Base found in a research accident that if there are two or more ways to do something, and one of the choices will lead to disaster, then someone will make this choice.

This is the "Murphy's Law", the main content has four aspects:

1. Nothing is as simple as it seems;

Second, all things will be longer than you expected;

Third, things that go wrong will always go wrong;

Fourth, if you are worried about a certain situation, then it is more likely to happen.

If you have seen the movie "Interstellar Crossing", you may not be familiar with "Murphy's Law". There are many explanations for this, but one is for sure: a disaster, always one after another, a bad detail, the problem can not be 100% cover up, there is always a detail that will make you stand out.

This actually explains a problem: there must be hidden dangers in the accident, and there should be signs of abnormal phenomena. As long as a hidden danger is blocked and a symptom is discovered in advance, the entire accident can often be avoided.



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Iris Liang
SEKO Machinery & Technology Co., Ltd
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