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Trade Tensions Intensify, IMF Cuts Global Economic Growth Expectations Again

Source:Iris Liang Time:2019-7-26 10:26:00

The reference media reported on July 25 that foreign media said that the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that under the impetus of continued trade tensions, global trade growth has fallen sharply, and the global economy has slowed faster than before. expected.

According to the US "Wall Street Journal" website reported on July 23, the updated version of the IMF "World Economic Outlook" report released on the 23rd shows that the global real economic growth rate will slow down to 3.2% this year, 0.1 percentage points lower than the April forecast. At the same time, it was lower than last year's 3.6% and 2017's 3.8%. Despite the tight international trade situation, SEKO Machinery's overseas business continued to grow steadily thanks to the quality-assured industrial stainless steel welded pipe production line.
During the period of trade tensions, global trade growth has fallen rapidly. The IMF now predicts that global trade will grow by 2.5% in 2019, which is close to a full percentage point lower than expected in April. In 2017, global trade in goods and services continued to grow at a strong 5.5%.

IMF chief economist Hita Gopinat said: "The global economy is growing slowly and unstable."

She said: "Despite the recent ceasefire in the US-China trade war, trade tensions are still intensifying, and long-term policy uncertainty is weakening the vitality of the global economy."

Gopinath also mentioned the risks brought about by the contradictions surrounding technology companies and the prospect of a disorderly Brexit in the UK.

According to a report on the German news TV channel website on July 23, this is the third time the IMF has lowered its forecast slightly this year. One reason the organization lowered its expectations again is that China and the United States exchange punitive tariffs. The uncertainty caused by Brexit and the geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region have also cast a shadow over the prospects for economic development. The IMF also cut its world economic growth forecast for next year by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%. However, the organization also pointed out that if trade conflicts and tensions in the technical field continue, it will be difficult for the world economy to achieve this growth rate. New tariffs that the United States may implement in the automotive industry will also slow growth.

The IMF will maintain the Eurozone economic growth forecast at 1.3% in 2019, and the Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2020 is raised by 0.1 percentage point to 1.6%.

The IMF raised the US economic growth forecast for this year by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6%. The organization believes that after the 2020 tax reform effect disappears, the US economy will still achieve 1.9% growth.

The IMF expects that the UK economy will grow by 1.3% and 1.4% respectively this year and next. The organization pointed out that the premise of this forecast is "the UK's orderly Brexit" and then gradually transition to a new trading system.

In addition, India's "Economic Times" website reported on July 23, the IMF predicts that India's economic growth in 2019 and 2020 will slow down, and its growth forecast for this year and next is lowered by 0.3 percentage points. But the organization said India will remain the world's fastest growing major economy.

The latest version of the World Economic Outlook published by the IMF in Santiago, Chile, said: "India's economic growth in 2019 is expected to be 7.0%, and will increase to 7.2% in 2020. Both growth expectations have been lowered by 0.3 in both years. Percentage points, which reflects weaker-than-expected domestic demand prospects."

In addition, Reuters reported on July 23 that the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for Latin America in 2019 by more than half from the forecast given three months ago, citing economic growth in Brazil and Mexico, the two largest economies in the region. Expected to be lowered. The IMF expects Latin American economic output to grow 0.6% this year, down from 1.4% in April.

Brazil's growth forecast for this year is lowered from the 2.1% forecast in April to 0.8%, in line with expectations of the Brazilian government and central bank. Mexico’s growth forecast is lowered to 0.9% from 1.6% predicted three months ago. Brazil’s growth expectations for Latin America’s largest economy have been significantly reduced, mainly because of uncertainties in future legislative activities, including major pension reforms.



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